EIT Urban Mobility has unveiled its latest study, “Costs and Benefits of the Urban Mobility Transition.” This comprehensive report examines how European cities can navigate the complex path to meet the EU Green Deal’s transport sector goals for 2030 and 2050, assessing various mobility strategies’ financial and societal impacts.
Transition scenarios
An update to the 2021 report, the study provides detailed simulations of three transition scenarios across twelve prototype European cities, representing the diverse urban environments within the EU. It reveals that while technological advancements could reduce CO2 emissions by 21% by 2030, meeting the Green Deal targets will require far more ambitious actions. The only pathway that achieves the 2030 Green Deal target calls for a 44% reduction in emissions, but this comes with significant challenges, particularly regarding public acceptance and behavior change.
The study underscores that the most effective ways to reduce private car use and emissions are through attractive public transport, shared mobility options, and access restrictions such as low-emission zones. By 2030, these measures could lead to a 7% rise in public transport use and a 16% decrease in private car trips.
City logistics
Together with passenger mobility, the freight delivery system has a crucial role. First, relevant fleet renewal is needed to reduce vehicle pollution. Second, it is vital to work on freight delivery efficiency, such as using delivery plans and distribution centers. Finally, last-mile logistics can be made more sustainable through cargo bikes, reducing congestion, pollution, and injuries and fatalities.
On the one hand, vehicle technology has improved, and efficiency has increased, aided by policy measures like Urban Delivery Systems. On the other hand, there is a need for a mode shift in last-mile logistics towards cargo bikes. These vehicles can deliver goods in areas where cars are banned, offering zero-emission deliveries that, in some cases, are more efficient than those made with light-duty vehicles (LDVs).
Despite policies encouraging the adoption of cargo bikes, their numbers have further increased in the short term due to the introduction of Low Emission Zones (LEZ) for freight vehicles in two scenarios. When polluting vehicles are banned from the city, deliveries can rely on new technology or shift to cargo bikes.
The first approach, upgrading vehicle technology, requires investing in new heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) and LDVs with cleaner engines and optimizing the load factor to reduce delivery costs. The second approach encourages a stronger shift toward cargo bikes for urban deliveries, replacing LDVs.
By 2050, as the overall vehicle fleet becomes cleaner, the use of LDVs for deliveries will increase again, reducing the reliance on cargo bikes compared to the short-term when a strict LEZ scheme is enforced. In the long term, a balance between LDV and cargo bike usage could be achieved through more stringent regulations, such as road charging schemes. The (temporary) increase in cargo bikes is mainly driven by LDV and HDV use restrictions, which become less impactful as the vehicle fleet becomes cleaner over time.
Source: EIT Urban Mobility